Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
